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What is the probability that the team will win by more than X points?
Say a team has a probability W of winning a game. Also the probability of a team winning by X or more points is P+ and the probability of winning by exactly by X points is P.
As practical example say a team with a winning probability of 58%, and the probability of winning by X or more points is 74.55% and the probability of winning by exactly X points is 13.24%
The key factor is that we want the probability of a win by more than X, but we are given the probability for X or more and exactly X.
Probability of winning by more than X points = W * ((P+) - P)
This is because (P+) - P = the probability that they win by X or more points, but excluding the case where they win by exactly X points.
You multiply by W because they have to win first before they can win by X points.
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September 30th, 2009
Posted by admin in x |
Probability of winning by more than X points = W * ((P+) - P)
This is because (P+) - P = the probability that they win by X or more points, but excluding the case where they win by exactly X points.
You multiply by W because they have to win first before they can win by X points.
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